According to the university’s website calculating the data-driven estimates, the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed based on the data from different countries to estimate the key dates of transition during the pandemic life cycle curve across the globe.
The model uses data from Our World in Data and code from Milan Batista and applies the SIR Model for Spread of Disease – The Differential Equation Model – to predict when the pandemic might end in different countries and in the world. “Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem. However, the pandemic life cycles vary by countries, and different countries might be in different phases of the life cycles at a specific point in time.” Says Jianxi Luo who published the paper.
The study says that the cases in Pakistan are at or very near their peak while those in the United States are past their peak already.
The university has also predicted the estimated COVID-19 End Dates for a bunch of other countries and the world at large. According to its calculations, COVID-19 will turn in Singapore around May 5 and end 97% around June 4. As per the study, the calculations show that COVID-19 will 100% end across the world on December 8.